Lt-Gen Kyaw Win, who oversees military operations in Shan and Kayah states, arrived at Kengtung, the Burma Army's Triangle Region Command headquarters on Monday, 12 March, reports Mawk Pao from the border:

Lt-Gen Kyaw Win

He is reportedly on another inspection tour of eastern Shan State, according to a reliable source in Kengtung. 

His visit coincides with reports of an inspection trip by Brig-Gen Way Lin, deputy to Maj-Gen Min Aung Hlaing, Commander of the Triangle Region, 9-13 March in Mongton township, opposite Chiangmai province. The anti-Rangoon Shan State Army (SSA)'s two main border bases, Loilam (Doi Dam for Thai) and Sanzu, are in the township's jurisdiction.

One Thai analyst meanwhile told S.H.A.N. any military operation launched by the Burma Army during this month will essentially be a limited action like the 8 March attack on a Karen base further south. "27 March is the SPDC (State Peace and Development Council)'s Armed Forces Day," he said. "It's the time each regional command gives a good account of itself."

The analyst, who requests anonymity, does not think a major operation against the SSA is in the offing. "Too many crises face the junta," he says, "like spiraling food and essential commodity prices, all-time high military expenditures, sweeping reshuffles in the army and the resultant widespread low morale. They can only afford small scale surprise attacks at present."

The Thai Army nevertheless has deployed its units along the northern border both to help fight against spread of forest fires coming from the Burmese side of the border and head off any surprise attack by the Burma Army that may spill over into Thailand, reports Bangkok Post today.

SSA commanders, on the other hand, promise they will never be caught off guard by "the Burmese Army".

Kantarawaddy Times, quoting deserters from the Burma Army, meanwhile reported that a major offensive against the SSA and its neighboring ally, Karenni Army (KA), is due in April.

Lt-Gen Kyaw Win, who oversees military operations in Shan and Kayah states, has arrived in Tachilek, opposite Maesai today, according to local Thai and Shan security sources:

Lt-Gen Kyaw Win
with Sai Leun in Mongla

Kyaw Win, officially chief of the Bureau of Special Operations (BSO) #2, is due to visit the strategic bridge west of Tachilek being in construction since late last month. The said bridge is some 16 km north of Loi Kawwan, the Shan State Army (SSA)'s main base in eastern Shan State.

He is also scheduled to visit Monghpong, 37 km east of Tachilek, where Burma and Laos had agreed earlier to build a bridge across the Mekong, according to local source.

Kyaw Win flew into Kengtung, 160 km north of Tachilek, on Monday, 12 March. On 13 March, he was reported to be in Mongla, headquarters of Lin Mingxian aka Sai Leun's National Democratic Alliance Army-Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS). Unconfirmed reports say he also visited Panghsang, headquarters of the United Wa State Army headed by Bao Youxiang.

Sources however were unable to find out what he discussed with the two ceasefire leaders. The two had in 2002 joined forces with the Burma Army against the SSA. "We thought we were fighting against the Thai Army that had invaded Burma, according to Gen Thein Sein (on 2 June 2002)," an NDAA-ESS officer told S.H.A.N. at that time. "He didn't tell us we were fighting against the SSA."

So far The New Light of Myanmar has reported on his arrival in Kengtung, inspection of the extension project on the runway, from 4,700 ft long x 70 ft wide to 8,000 ft long x 150 ft wide, and his visit to Mongla.

The SSA and the Burma Army fought for more than a month opposite Chiangmai and Chiangrai provinces in 2002.