Burma's political reform process is now completely stalled as the country's military rulers remain deadlocked over how to move forward. National reconciliation, as the junta calls its plans for political change, has ground to a halt as the top generals are preoccupied with reorganising the government administration and the military command structure, in preparation for the future.''The hardliners, who are resisting any kind of change, have regained the ear of the senior general [Than Shwe], while the pragmatists have gone to ground,'' said Burmese analyst Win Min. Bolstered by their escape at the UN Security Council earlier this year when the junta's main allies, China and Russia, blocked a US-backed resolution, the top generals now feel there is no real pressure on them to change. The National Convention, which is drawing up the new constitution, has been postponed until the end of the year, according to senior government officials. It had been expected to resume its deliberations later this month.

Top general Than Shwe's health is deteriorating dramatically, casting a longer shadow over plans for political change. He is getting increasingly reclusive, hiding away in his palatial mansion in Naypyidaw, some 400km north of Rangoon. He sees few people and only comes out to attend major meetings or functions.

One important ceremony he will attend, though, is for Armed Forces Day on March 27. Massive preparations are already under way. More than 10,000 soldiers are working around the clock to get the parade ground ready for the event in the new capital Naypyidaw.

''At night, they are working under floodlights, '' said a government official in the capital.

It is going to be a big affair _ the largest and grandest ever because it will be the senior general's last march past as commander-in- chief, according to senior military sources. The senior general's health has been failing for some time now. Than Shwe is known to suffer from hypertension and diabetes.

''He's subject to frequent diabetic rages when his sugar levels get out of control,'' said a Burmese army doctor. He also reportedly suffered a mild stroke two years ago.

In January, the senior general visited Singapore for a medical check-up after reportedly suffering chest pains. Singapore doctors feared he was suffering from cancer of the pancreas. He is now scheduled to return to Singapore for a major heart operation, reported to be a quadruple bypass, next month during Buddhist lunar new year, Thingyan. The authorities have declared an extended holiday then to help cover his absence.

When Than Shwe last flew to Singapore many thought he was on his last legs, and this sparked euphoria among majors and colonels in the army, said a Burmese government source. On his return, Than Shwe had to conduct an intensive media campaign to try to convince the country he was fit and in control.

More than 2,000 senior government officials and military officers are being sent to Buddhist monasteries during the Thingyan break.

While there are signs of a power struggle among Burma's top generals, many believe the main problem is between the top two generals who cannot agree who will take the top post if Than Shwe's health further deteriorates.

''Maung Aye is ready to seize control of the country if Than Shwe has to step down because of illness,'' said the Chiang Mai-based analyst Win Min.

''He will resist the immediate succession of Than Shwe's appointed man [Thura Shwe Mann].''

Behind the scenes, there are major differences of opinion between the main camps. The two contenders for the top post are divided over how to move the country forward, and at what speed.

''Maung Aye heads the hardliners who will resist change at all costs, preferring to maintain the status quo. Whereas the other camp, led by Thura Shwe Mann, is interested in exploring new initiatives that could help break the country's international isolation,'' said a senior Burmese political analyst based in Rangoon with close ties to the military.

But it seems clear now that Maung Aye has positioned himself to take power if Than Shwe stands down or is incapacitated in any way. Sources close to Maung Aye say he has told his people that their time is near.

''The fruit is almost ripe, all we need to do is hold out our arms and it will fall into our hands,'' said a close confidant of the general.

Maung Aye is now in control of all the day-to-day activities of the government, according to Asian diplomats who are close to the regime. While Thura Shwe Mann may be inclined to be more pragmatic, there is no incentive for him to rock the boat. No one at the top is likely to benefit from change or progress toward political reform now, said analysts in Rangoon. The status quo is by far the best option for everyone, including Than Shwe.

''Amid the current uncertainty there is no incentive to move forward, everyone has more to lose than gain,'' a senior Western diplomat in Rangoon said.

That is particularly true for Thura Shwe Mann.

''His best option is certainly to lie low and wait. If he tries to do too much, he could easily find himself isolated and share the same fate as the former prime minister, General Khin Nyunt,'' he said.

Khin Nyunt was arrested in October 2004, and is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to more than 50 years in jail.

''Nothing is happening and everyone is running to the fortune tellers to find out what will happen,'' the diplomat added.

Than Shwe's brain-child, the National Convention, which has been meeting intermittently since January 1993 drawing up the guidelines for a new constitution, was expected to resume its discussions in late March for what many analysts expected to be the final session. But Than Shwe is no longer pushing forward on the political road map.

Diplomats and visiting European academics were told recently that the reopening of the National Convention has been postponed until later in the year. Information Minister Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan told visiting German academics it could be June or even November.

Foreign Minister Nyan Win told diplomats it would be later this year, but that the authorities would not make a public announcement at this time because hostile elements outside the country were trying to sabotage the process.

Both Asian and Western diplomats in Rangoon believe the National Convention is unlikely to reconvene before November. Many in Rangoon believe this may be partly because of the senior general's failing health and his fear that he cannot relinquish any of his power at present as this may put his position and his family's fortunes at risk.

''While Than Shwe may not be pushing ahead with the road map, he is still trying to execute the other part of his master plan,'' said a senior military source. ''His strategy is to separate the military from government.' '

The process of civilianising the government administration is being pushed ahead. The military commanders who controlled the local authorities at provincial, district and township level are being replaced with former soldiers. The new administrative chiefs are being drawn from the pool of recently retired middle-ranking military officers. More than a thousand were compulsorily retired earlier this year.

A major shake-up in the cabinet is also likely later this year after the restructuring of the military command which is expected to emerge sometime after Armed Forces Day.

At one stage the plan was for the country's top two military rulers, Gen Than Shwe and his deputy Gen Maung Aye, to stand down from their military commands, and pass power to the next generation of generals. This now seems to be on hold indefinitely, but other major changes within the military are expected to proceed in the coming months.

A new generation of regional commanders would also be appointed, many of them in their early fifties. The military commanders would also withdraw from the administration of the provinces and villages, being replaced by civilians who have been handpicked by the junta. At the same time there would be a massive shake-up of government, with most ministers being replaced by younger men _ some possibly former regional commanders.

These planned changes are intended to prepare the army for the next phase in the country's move toward political reform and the introduction of a civilian administration. The changes are part of Than Shwe's plans to ensure that the draft constitution is approved by the national referendum. And to prepare for fresh elections which are expected to be held next year.

''This is all part of Than Shwe's plans to streamline government administration and strengthen the authorities' control over the general population in preparation for a transition to so-called civilian rule and to win the elections held under the new constitution, '' said Win Min.

The changes in government and the army will be the most dramatic since the military seized power more than 18 years ago. But they may be too late to stem the growing frustration in the country with the junta's failure to introduce political reform and improve the economy.