Police Major-General Amaresrit Wattanavibool must have been unduly encouraged by official reports about dramatically low output of opium in Burma in recent years. He must have forgotten the wise saying, "You can prove anything with statistics except the truth."

Nevertheless, I'm sure he will not be surprised to learn that opium production has now spread from the Shan State to other states and divisions in Burma: Karenni (Kayah), Kachin, Chin, Mandalay, Sagaing and Magwe, and what's more, from highlands to lowlands, farmers to police and soldiers and cold season to all seasons.

And while it's true the Wa's Special Region 2 have called it quits to their centuries-old profession since 2005, contrary to expectations, adequate assistance is not forthcoming. "All except the Burmese government are trying to help us," complained a Wa official when we visited Panghsang last December. Even the UN has warned the current zero-production campaign waged by the Burmese and Wa leaderships is not "sustainable".

The reason is that Pyinmana, the new capital, fears successful crop substitution projects will keep the Wa strong and, as a result, not submissive to its standing demand that the group lay down its arms.

The current situation in the Wa state is another testimony to calls by veteran Burma experts such as Bertil Lintner and the late Chao Tzang Yawnghwe that for any drug policy to succeed in Burma, policy makers must take into account the political side of the problem.